Análise dos métodos de previsão de demanda para um restaurante: um estudo de caso.

Abstract

With the growing competitiveness of the market, companies have sought a differential that would make them stand out from their competitors; thus, it is necessary to innovate and make processes efficient. For a good production planning and control, it is of utmost importance to know the demand forecast methods, since these forecasts allow managers to plan adequately for the future. Thus, the present work aims to analyze and find the best demand forecast method for a restaurant in the interior of Rio Grande do Norte according to the data and information collected. The forecast methods chosen were: Exponential Moving Average, Correlation Method and Seasonality Method. The method that presented the lowest sum of errors, result being 4, was the Seasonality Method, diverging in large scales from the Correlation Method, where the error presented was 150, a variation that makes implementation unfeasible; based on this analysis, the Seasonality method becomes viable for application.