Inter-relações entre TSMS globais, sistemas atmosféricos de meso e grande escalas e anomalias de volume dos principais reservatórios de água da Paraíba.

Abstract

An analysis of the influence of the atmospheric large scale systems and mesoscale, on the deviations of the volumes of water stored in the main reservoirs of Paraíba in Northeast of Brazil is presented here. The analysis was accomplished under two different aspects: firstly, it was investigated through the nature of the correlations between the anomalies of the temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on a global base and the volume anomalies for the three main reservoirs of the state of Paraiba namely, Boqueirão , Coremas and Engenheiro Ávidos. The results show that strong negative correlations exist among the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean in the áreas denominated NINOl+2 and N1N03 and the considered volume anomalies. Considering the influence of the mesoscale convective systems on the volumes, the analysis of the histograms of frequency of the occurrence of these systems, that the largest activity of these systems occur in the month of March in the áreas of the reservoirs and that in El Nino years that activity is quite reduced, with large repercussions on the monthly volumes. To evaluate the contribution of those systems for the volume of the reservoirs, a case study of an occurrence in the month of May 1999, was made to estimate the volume of water contributed to the reservoirs through the simulation of the corresponding river discharge, two hydrologic daily flow models, being one global (Tank Model) and another distributed (NAVMO) were used for simulating the flow. The results show that the mesoscale systems that occur on the area of the reservoirs are responsible for the contribution of signifícant volumes.