Capacidade adaptativa a eventos extremos compostos na Paraíba.

Abstract

Climate change contributes to greater variability and intensity of compound extreme events, such as droughts and floods. In this sense, this research aims to develop a methodology for identifying compound events in municipalities in Paraíba. In this propose, planning and mitigation measures should be based on an integrated analysis of the adaptive capacity to drought and flood events. To this end, the spatial analysis of susceptibility was carried out from the perspective of urban resilience, which is necessary and is naturally perceived in areas exposed to extreme events. The methodological procedures were divided into three stages, first the theoretical-methodological basis was developed. Next, the susceptibility to Extreme Compound Events in Paraíba was analyzed based on the overlapping of the Drought Climate Impact Risk Index of the Adapta Brasil MCTI platform and the Flood Climate Impact Risk Index constructed during the research, which made use of the Shannon's and Vikor's Entropy methods for determining the weights and aggregation of the indicators respectively. Subsequently, the susceptibility to composite extreme events was studied for the city of Campina Grande-PB. For this purpose, two previously developed models (risk of shortages and susceptibility to flooding) were combined in the city. The most critical areas of both models are related and analyzed with a Social Vulnerability Index, in order to assess the adaptive capacity, necessary for building urban resilience, indicating the most critical areas where adaptive capacity leads to greater urban resilience . The results, both for the scale of Paraíba and Campina Grande, indicate that greater susceptibility to extreme events, especially compound events, and greater social vulnerabilities generate more significant exposure to hazards and, consequently, greater impacts are observed. These findings reveal how a low adaptive capacity requires higher attention from public policies and mitigating actions to increase resilience. It also shows that the resilience can be improved by the adoption of measures that prioritize municipalities and areas with higher susceptibility to extreme events composed from the consideration of better planning, management , infrastructure improvements and monitoring actions.