MASCENA, L. B.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2775112889343046; MASCENA, Lucas Bandeira.
Résumé:
Several factors throughout history point to the relevant issue of water resource management,
such as droughts, increased need and doubts about water availability. With this, this study had
as general objective to build a stochastic simulator of monthly flows for the rivers Piancó and
Emas located in the watershed of the river Piancó-Piranhas-Açú. To achieve the desired
objective, the methodology applied by Matalas was used, where it was possible to generate data
for 1000 years, so that an evaluation could be carried out about the effectiveness of the
generation of these data, the observed data of flow of the aforementioned rivers in the range of
the years from 2002 to 2021, obtained through the HIDROWEB platform, database of the
National Water Agency ANA, a comparison of simulated and observed data was carried out
following the parameters of, percentage of zeros, mean, standard deviation, cross comparison,
serial comparison and histograms. From this comparison, it was possible to observe that the
simulator was able to find similar data for most months, however, in part of the data generated,
the simulator was not able to adequately capture the factors that influence the variability of the
data, such as the specific hydrological characteristics of the semi-arid region. or it may have
been influenced due to the amount of observed data that may have been insufficient for a more
efficient generation since the analyzed data do not cover the full range of hydrological
conditions and the presence of extreme events in the time series.
