Análise das secas meteorológicas recentes do Estado da Paraíba utilizando o índice padronizado de precipitação e evapotranspiração (SPEI).

Abstract

The state of Paraíba is located in the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil and is very prone to drought. These climatic events usually have tremendous negative effects on agriculture, the environment, the industrial sector, and the social environment, among others. This work evaluated the spatio-temporal variations of drought occurrences in the State of Paraíba between 1961 and 2019, as quantified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This index is a tool developed to characterize droughts by defining their duration, severity, intensity, and frequency. These were analyzed using the SPEI for multiple time scales, such as 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Trend analyses were performed based on the Mann-Kendall and Sen non-parametric tests. The results indicate that short-term droughts occur in greater quantity, last less time, are more intense, and are becoming more frequent. Long-term droughts occur in fewer amounts, last longer, are more severe, are less intense, and are becoming less frequent. The trend analysis observed that the greater the time scale, the greater the trend declivity, indicating an increase in trends in the index. Finally, it is concluded that the SPEI is an important tool for the characterization of drought events as it has satisfactorily identified the behavior of drought episodes at different time scales. In the assistance and management of water resources, in carrying out environmental protection, in the production of food, and also in helping decision-makers adopt strategies to cope with droughts.