PINHEIRO, A. R. S.; PINHEIRO, Antonio Rondinelly da Silva.
Resumen:
Water systems are susceptible to a variety of challenges, such as problems associated
with water excess and scarcity. The use of practical operation rules for proper water
resources management emerges as an alternative to mitigate such difficulties. In this
study, a protection rule based on Monte Carlo Optimization with Random Forest (MCORF) was applied for the monthly operation of reservoirs. To obtain the rule, the
following steps were followed: (1) generation of synthetic inflows by the Fragment
Method; (2) application of a deterministic model (DET) to optimize the system
operation, minimizing its vulnerability; and (3) association of the optimal water
allocations and availabilities to generate the MCO-RF rule. We validated the
methodology by applying the procedure to the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir in Brazil. The
generated rule was evaluated by using independent inflow series. The MCO-RF model
proved to be promising, defining an allocation behavior similar to that produced by the
DET model under perfect inflow prediction. The MCO-RF rule is also practical,
requiring only the current month’s water availability to determine the allocation.