Estimativas de riscos de incêndios florestais em uma série temporal no Estado da Paraíba.

Abstract

Planted and native forests often suffer great damage from forest fires. Fires are usually of anthropogenic, accidental or criminal origin, destroying entire ecosystems, reflecting on the economy, population life and incalculable environmental losses. The occurrence and spread of fire is directly related to weather conditions, as well as the amount of combustible material available for burning. The FMA and FMA+ are important fire hazard indexes that serve as a tool to prevent and combat forest fires. It is also important to study the recorded heat sources so that one begins to understand better the fire behavior in a certain region. The objective of this research was to evaluate the performance of the AMF and AMF + and also to quantify the foci of heat through satellite images in six municipalities in the State of Paraíba. In the first study, based on the INMET meteorological data, the fire hazard levels of the two formulas (FMA and FMA+) were calculated in each municipality, following the original intervals of the danger levels, and later the adjustment of the intervals, followed by the principle of proportionality between the degrees of danger and the frequency of fires. For the municipality of João Pessoa, the FMA did not conform to the proposed one, following the trend of improportionality. The meteorological variable, rainfall, interfered directly with the occurrence of fire hazard degrees. In the second study, data from heat sources from the INPE database were separated by months and years for the six municipalities selected in the four mesoregions of the State. It was observed that there were years with a high incidence of records of heat sources, possibly due to some natural or anthropic phenomena, with the Sertão Paraibano mesoregion registering the largest heat sources.