Projeção climática da pluviosidade e temperatura do ar da região continental brasileira entre 2021 a 2040 simulada por modelos do CMIP6-SSP126/245/370.

Abstract

Several studies have observed, through climate projection modeling, the increase in the frequency of climate extremes in several regions of Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this work is to evaluate changes in temperature and precipitation simulated by high-resolution climate models from CMIP6 for 3 emission scenarios in part of the Brazilian continental region using geotechnologies. Using QGIS®, 36 maps of the variables were created and classified, and the respective histograms were generated. In the statistical treatment, descriptive analysis of the data was carried out using QGIS® 3.36 and zonal statistics using SAGA® 9.2.0. Using RStudio®, the Shapiro-Wilk normality test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov adherence test, Man Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation coefficient were prepared. The results demonstrated a cooling trend of 1.59oC. The projection of the maximum temperature showed a tendency to maintain the maximum temperature at 30oC. Future precipitation demonstrated a decreasing trend of 5mm distributed throughout Brazil. The annual distribution of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation showed minimal variability between the forcings. The normality tests for the seasonal minimum temperature and precipitation showed irregularities in the autumn season for the forcings ssp245 and ssp370. At maximum temperature, it showed regularity in future projections. The correlation between precipitation and maximum temperature was mostly very strong, diverging in the autumn seasonal season. The forcing scenarios did not present significant results, with no progression.