Análise da resiliência climática da cultura de soja na região do Matopiba, Brasil (1985-2020).

Abstract

Climate change has been at the center of various scientific, economic, political, and public discussions. This study aims to analyze climate change in the Matopiba region and evaluate its relationship with land use and cover, soybean crop production and yield, and the ocean-atmosphere anomalies of Multivariate El Niño Index (MEI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over 35 years (198532020). Daily precipitation and temperature data from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) stations were used. Agricultural data on soybean production and yield in the Matopiba municipalities were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Land use and cover data for Matopiba and buffers around the region's meteorological stations were sourced from the MapBiomas platform. Ocean-atmosphere anomalies were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data were analyzed using statistical and geostatistical techniques. The Mann-Kendall test was used to evaluate climatic and agricultural trends. The annual and intra-annual maximum temperatures rose over the years in Matopiba. A significant decreasing trend of annual precipitation was observed in the region in 90.90% of the period analyzed. Evaluating intra-annual climatic trends provides more specific results of climate change for use in agricultural calendars. In 35 years, there has been a significant change in land use and cover in Matopiba, with agriculture showing the most significant increase and forested areas (forest and savanna) the most significant decrease. Of the municipalities analyzed, 68.18% showed trends of increasing soy production and yield over the years. The evaluated data showed no correlation between climate change trends and soy production and yield. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) positively correlated with soy agricultural variables. There is annual and intra-annual evidence of climate change in Matopiba and signs of climate adaptation and resilience for soy production and yield in the region. The results provide support for agricultural and environmental planning in Matopiba.