MELO, M. H. B.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2538146023601236; MELO, Matheus Henrique Bezerra de.
Resumo:
The hydrographic sub-basins of SOBRADINHO, TRÊS MARIAS, and RETIRO BAIXO are
located in the São Francisco River, which covers a large part of Northeast Brazil and plays a
fundamental role in the production of biomass and quality water for the region, as well as
being important for biodiversity conservation. Water resource management is essential to
ensure effective water use. Climate change, driven by human activity, has significant impacts
on the global hydrological cycle, including rising temperatures, glacier melting, changes in
ocean currents and rainfall patterns, and a reduction in the amount of water stored in rivers
and lakes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) is an important
report that assesses climate knowledge and describes how climate change affects various
climatic elements. Understanding water flows is also crucial for planning measures to protect
and recover the quality of water resources. The study aims to estimate the monthly water
balance of the São Francisco River basin, focusing on the sub-basins of Retiro Baixo,
Sobradinho, and Três Marias. For this purpose, the Thornthwaite method and the SMAP
hydrological model were employed to understand variations in water resources over time and
anticipate possible future climatic scenarios in the region.Climatology in the sub-basins under
the historical period (1990-2014) differs from the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios
(2015-2035; 2045-2065; 2079-2100), revealing increases in temperatures and variations in
precipitation. The water balance highlights pronounced deficits, especially in Três Marias and
Sobradinho under SSP5-8.5 in the more distant time frames (2045-2065; 2079-2100), while
the historical period (1990-2014) and the 2015-2035 range show similar deficits and
surpluses.The use of SMAP to project flow shows good performance, but distinct patterns in
calculated and observed flow highlight challenges in precise representation, especially in
Sobradinho and Retiro Baixo during rainy periods and Três Marias in the dry period. In
summary, model updates are crucial for accurate projections in the face of environmental
changes, proving essential for sustainable water resource planning in the region.