Análise estatística dos padrões de velocidade do vento no nordeste brasileiro através da distribuição de Weibull.

Abstract

Wind can be conceptualized as the displacement of atmospheric air due to differences in atmospheric pressure between two distinct regions, influenced by local effects, whether by surface roughness or by the location's orography. Understanding the characteristics of the wind regime is important to optimize wind energy generation and avoid damage to turbines. The present study aims to identify the behavior of wind speed in the Brazilian Northeast region, analyzing and comparing the behavior of wind speed on a monthly, seasonal and hourly scale in four locations in the NEB, which have wind farms located nearby: Patos (PB), Parnaíba (PI), Guanambi (BA) and Macau (RN). The hourly average wind speed data at 10 meters were obtained through INMET meteorological stations, and at 100 meters high were obtained through ERA5 reanalyses, from 2010 to 2020. From the results, it will be possible to identify the behavior , the monthly seasonality of wind speed and analyze the trend of the variable, in addition to applying the Weibull distribution, a useful tool for analysis and prospecting of wind potential. From the results, it was observed that the Macau station presented the highest average wind speed in contrast to the lowest average speed recorded in Parnaíba. The highest maximum wind speed values were identified in the second half of the year. According to the Weibull distribution, there is a greater probability of speeds above 4 m/s occurring in Patos, and in Macau, the maximum peak speed is 5 m/s. Therefore, this research is extremely important to contribute to the assessment of wind speed behavior and a supporting tool for determining wind potential, thus expanding the wind energy generation capacity in the NEB.