Tendências e variabilidade espaço-temporal em variáveis climáticas globais utilizando reanálises

Abstract

Possible climate trends were analyzed for the variables air temperature (ºC) at 2 meters precipitable water (mm) and longwave radiation emitted by the surface (W.m-2), based on information from the monthly averages obtained from the reanalysis of National Center for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and ERA-Interim/ European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), for the Northern Hemisphere (HN), Southern Hemisphere (HS) and the Globe, from 1989 to 2018. Data were analyzed using statistical tests of normality, seasonality, significance and trend. Results point to positive trend values with air temperature from 0.0290 and 0,0256 ºC/year, to HN; 0,0155 e 0,0088 ºC/year to HS and 0,0229 and 0,0170 ºC/year to Globe. The precipitable water showed a significant tendency of 0,0443 and 0,0364 mm/year to HN; 0,0259 and 0,0173 mm/year to HS and 0,0331 and 0,0284 mm/year to Globe. The surface-emitted longwave radiation to NCEP tends to 0,1396, 0,0593 and 0,1002 to HN, HS and globe. The NCEP and ECMWF spatialization presents nucleus with positive and negative values, pointing to both increase of analyzed variables and decrease in some areas. The results are consistent with IPCC analysis for future prognoses, and this increase may be associated with anthropogenic actions, causing temperature increases primarily in areas where glacier melting and rising ocean levels.