Risco climático do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar na região Nordeste do Brasil.

Abstract

This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on agricultural zoning of climatic risk crop of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) grownin northeastern Brazil based on IPCC (2001) reports. The water balance model combined with Geographic Information System techniques was used to identify regional areas where the cowpea bean crop will suffer yield reduction due to climate changes. Model input variables were: rainfall, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. A limit value of 0.5 was adopted for the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), being the ratio of actual to maximum evapotranspiration. The scenarios used in simulations without an increase in air temperature and an increase of 1.5, 3 and 5 oC are associated with changes in precipitation ± 10, ± 25 and ± 40%. The results show that climate change will significantly reduce agricultural areas favorable for the cultivation with sugar cane in Northeast Brazil, affecting significantly the availability of the areas of crop production. The results also indicate that there is a difference between the scenarios no increase in temperature, the three warming scenarios and current weather conditions in terms of the projected effects of temperature variation on the areas cultivated with sugar cane in the region of study.