Riscos versus incertezas: uma aplicação em bovinocultura de corte confinada.

Abstract

The research seeks to discuss mensuration forms involving aleatory and not aleatory uncertainties. It was verified that for the treatment of natural phenomenons, the aleatory use is a quite appropriate tool. To measure non aleatory uncertainties, the use of fuzzy variables found better answers. The study of fuzzy dynamic programming verified a larger effectiveness for the subjective treatment in the context of Zadeh. The application objectified the development ponderal in the bovinocultura of confined court, the identification of the best moment of commercialization of the product, as well as the best system of animal production considering the ideal date of it discards of the same. This way, the complement of the research it made using the studies of historical series, supported in the models ARIMA, with data collected ICEPA-SC close to.