Estimativa da safra de soja no Paraná usando o sistema PrevSafras.

Abstract

The objective of this research was to quantify soybean production in Paraná State for the cropping year 2005/06, using a computer system named PrevSafras. Relative yield (RY) was calculated by a crop production function coupled to a water balance module, which was run using daily met data. Maximum attainable yield (Ymax) and cultivated area (A) were obtained in different regions of the State by field survey and then used calculated crop yield (Y = Ymax . RY) and crop production (P = Y . A). PrevSafras calculated soybean yield decrease of 19% due to low precipitation during December and January. Regional PrevSafras estimates followed the trend of the estimation given by the government agency (SEAB/DERAL) and the estimated State production only 3.5% lower than the official estimate, which enable the method a great potential to be use for crop estimation in Paraná State.