Planejamento de padrão de cultivo em agricultura irrigada. Parte 2: análise de risco.

Abstract

Techniques that allow evaluating the risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany the planning studies. Risk analysis can be carried out through risk simulation, using techniques as the Monte Carlo Method. In the irrigated agriculture, the uncertainties with relationship to the irrigation requirement are particularly important. In this Part 2 of the work, it was aimed to apply risk analysis associated to the linear programming model described in the Part 1. In the risk analysis it was observed that all the resulting values from the simulations, for the output variable total net present value (U), were positive. However, the average was considerably inferior to the maximum value of U obtained in the linear programming model. It was verified, also, that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in April, if the cropping pattern relative to the maximum value of U be adopted. On the other hand, cropping patterns obtained from the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years are not subject to that risk. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price for the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise.