Previsão de vazões em tempo real em épocas de cheias no município de Nova Era - MG.

Abstract

Floodings are natural phenomena that may be intensified by anthropical actions in the hydrographic basin, therefore producing great economical damages as well as human and material losses to the population. In this context, some controlling policies such as the flow rate forecasts under real time and the flooding alert systems. Thus, this study was carried out to hydrologically simulating the forecasting of the flow rate in real time at periodical floods for the basin upwards the Nova Era town - MG. In this simulation, the hydrological model IPH II was used for transforming the rainfall into flow rate. Five pluviographic and one fluviographic stations were used in the simulation. The model was calibrated by attempt and error, and it was observed that the most important characteristic was the raise of the hydrogram, but not the recession period of this model. The results were statistically analyzed and compared to that of the Alert System for Flooding Prevention in Rio Doce Basin, Nova Era town. The Nash coefficient (R2) obtained by the model is similar than the alert system. Now the antecedence of the flooding event is higher, therefore showing the model might anticipate the forecast of these events.