Metodologia que integra variabilidade, complementaridade entre fontes de energia e dados históricos na análise de fluxo de potência.

Abstract

The rapid growth of renewable generation in Brazil, especially wind and solar, has brought significant operational challenges to the SIN (National Interconnected System). The variability of these sources can lead to unsafe operating conditions, resulting in generation constraints such as curtailment and constrained-off, as well as economic and technical impacts on the electricity sector. Given this scenario, this study proposes a methodology that combines the analysis of the power system’s security region with historical data on wind and solar generation capacity factors, enabling a more accurate assessment of the network’s operating conditions. The methodology consists of five main steps. First, historical wind and solar generation data are collected and processed from the ONS Open Data portal, allowing the calculation of hourly capacity factors. Next, a simulation of the power system’s security region is performed, representing the network's operational limits. Subsequently, the historical data are mapped onto this region, enabling the identification of critical periods when renewable generation exceeds system limits. The fourth step involves developing a network diagnostic algorithm that classifies each generation combination as safe or unsafe and calculates metrics such as exposure time and the power curtailment required to maintain safe operation. Finally, the methodology proposes two mitigation strategies for generation constraints: the Minimum Power Curtailment Mode, which minimizes the necessary generation reduction to ensure system security, and the Directed Power Curtailment Mode (Strategic Generation Curtailment), which adjusts generation while respecting the natural variation trend throughout the day, reducing potential control room interventions. To demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the methodology, a case study was conducted in the Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará regions. These regions are characterized by a high penetration of wind and solar farms, making them ideal for testing the proposed approach. The obtained results show that the developed methodology provides a detailed analysis of the interaction between renewable generation and the operational security of the power grid. The proposal not only enables the identification of critical scenarios but also quantifies generation constraints and their associated costs. Thus, the presented approach can significantly contribute to improving the operational strategies of the Brazilian power system, enabling greater utilization of renewable sources and reducing the impacts of operational constraints.