Percepção do risco e capacidade adaptativa à escassez hídrica: uma análise em pequenos municípios da Paraíba.

Abstract

Climate change has intensified extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, affecting vulnerable communities on multiple scales. In the Brazilian Semi-Arid region, water scarcity comes as a significant challenge to the population, making it essential to adopt coping strategies that promote urban and rural resilience and reduce vulnerabilities. Given this reality, this research investigates risk perception and adaptive capacity among the population served by the Poções - Epitácio Pessoa Water System in the face of water scarcity. The study employs indicators and considers socioeconomic and contextual factors through a participatory approach. It is based on interdisciplinary methods to analyze social factors influencing risk perception and community adaptation. A total of 346 questionnaires were administered in five representative municipalities of the Paraíba semi-arid region, and two workshops were conducted with 32 participants, including decision-makers and civil society representatives, to discuss perceptions regarding the effectiveness of different actions in addressing water scarcity. The data were analyzed using statistical and qualitative techniques to understand the relationship between risk perception and adaptive strategies, as well as the influence of social factors on the obtained indicators. The results indicate that residents have a consolidated perception of water scarcity risks and demonstrate different adaptive capacities. The study revealed that risk perception is associated with prior experience with drought events and that the willingness to adopt adaptive measures is influenced by factors such as age, income, and length of residence. The research highlights the importance of participatory approaches in formulating adaptation strategies, fostering greater social engagement and more effective solutions. This study contributes to the development of public policies aimed at mitigating the impacts of water scarcity, providing insights to strengthen the resilience of affected communities. The findings reinforce the need to integrate scientific knowledge and local expertise to ensure greater water security and social well-being in vulnerable regions.