http://lattes.cnpq.br/9324908747974694; SILVA, Fabrício Daniel dos Santos.
Résumé:
This paper had as its primary objective the generation of future climatic scenarios and the
evaluation of impacts over the productivity of upland cotton through an agrometeorological
model, when compared to the current productivity observed. A statistical downscaling was
used to obtain the future series of meteorological variables needed for the calculation of
productivity, obtained with an agrometeorological model appropriately calibrated for the
reality of cotton in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil. The time series of the
meteorological variables had their flaws properly completed and went through a rigorous
quality control system. The future projections calculated for the climatic scenarios A1B and A2, of the models ECHAM5-OM and HadGEM2-ES were unanimous in pointing out the significant reduction in rainfall and temperature rising. The evapotranspiration, consequently, also presents an upward trend for the future horizon studied, from 2020 to 2080. As impact for the cotton crop, it is foreseen, for the 23 studied municipalities of the northeast semi-arid, a significant reduction in productivity, which can be reduced to approximately half of the current observed productivity.