Distribuição espaço-temporal de chuvas extremas no Estado da Paraíba.

Abstract

Climate variability and increase in extreme weather and climate events, specially the variable daily precipitation, has been something of concern to both government authorities and for decision makers and the whole society. On this perspective, the objective of this study is to detect the probabilistic behavior of extreme precipitation events daily annual Paraiba State and the possible risk, for this, we sought to verify the trend of climate rainfall in time and space using time series of this variable and applying the statistical method of Mann-Kendall; determine: the payback period to 50 years and 100 years of extreme maximum daily rainfall for each time series by variable Reduced Gumbel; analyze weather systems responsible for precipitating events extreme daily rainfall and their percentage contributions of the temporal variable associated systems, and outliers of daily precipitation extremes using the tool box-plot. We used the data of daily maximum rainfall each year of 52 rain gauges and weather stations for the period 1910 to 2011 (47-102) years of Paraíba State, belonging to the National Water Agency, the State Bureau of Sanitation of Paraíba; the National Meteorological Institute, and the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. The analysis of the Mann-Kendall 38 from 52 localities tended to increase, while 13 were statistically significant, 14 showed negative trend, however, none were statistically significant. It is suggested the VCAN have little contribution in EEPDA João Pessoa, Alhambra, Sand, Caiçara Itabaiana Mamanguape Mulungu and the predominance of EEPDA was from March, and Pilar from the month of April. We conclude that the higher frequency occurring in the EEPDA was from January to April in 26 localities of Cariri / Curimatau, Hinterland and Higher Hinterland (Sertão e Alto Sertão) weather systems associated with these events were the ITCZ and VCAN.