Eventos extremos de precipitação nas mesorregiões do Estado da Paraíba e suas relações com a TSM dos oceanos Atlântico e Pacífico.

Abstract

Paraiba is a State that is inserted inside of NEB, and suffers as the same consequences social, economical and climatic of Region. It is always subjects to extreme precipitation, because is a region semi-arid. Then, the objective principal of this study is to identify possible trends of extreme indices of precipitation on the State of Paraíba and to correlate them with indexes of global teleconnections. Data of daily precipitation were analyzed from 1935 to 2004 for 23 stations of Paraíba, well spatial distributed. The Software RClimdex was used to calculate the extreme indexes of precipitation, in the sequence, it was calculated the trends using the Mann-Kendall test and finally it was verified the trends of the indices with the test on r to verify the statistical significance. In agreement with the trends of the extreme indices of precipitation (PRCPTOT, Rx1day, Rx5day, R10mm, R30mm, DCS, DCU and SDII) it was observed trends of increase of some extreme precipitation indices in most of the places analyzed in the period from 1935 to 1969, while, in the period from 1970 to 2004, that indices inverted the signs of the trends. It was also verified that the precipitations in Mesorregions of the State, except the Coast, are more correlated with the heating (cooling) in East Central Pacífic and, intensified, when associated with heating (cooling) with SST's of Atlantic Ocean in the areas of TNAI and TSAI, as well as of the Multidecadal Oscillation of Atlantic Ocean.