Aplicação do método GMCR em um conflito no Rio Piranhas-Açu.

Abstract

The Graphical Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is a flexible approach to conflict resolution that enables accurate modeling of strategies, as well as their possible solution, thus, providing support for decision making. In this work, GMCR, supported by the SAD GMCR II, was used for the strategic analysis of the Piranhas/Açu River watershed conflict, on the border between Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte States, in order to verify the applicability of the tool to resolve a real conflict. The description of the conflict was made from a vast documentary analysis and empirical information collection. The identified conflict arises from claims of water users from the potiguar state in relation to the regulated flow at the border between the two States. In addition, the situation is exacerbated by the indiscriminate use of the resource, water misuse, accommodation of actors in relation to inspection, among others. From this, the conflict was modelled, involving three decision makers and seven options, which resulted in 128 states, from which only 32 were considered feasible. Once the equilibria were determined, it was observed that seven states contemplated all stability definitions for all decision makers. Soon after, an analysis of these results was made through discussions about the model. After analyzing these seven states it was realized that one of them could be chosen for recommendation. Finally, the sensitivity analysis was performed which indicated the robustness of the result. The study demonstrated the applicability of the SAD GMCRII tool and how it can be useful to support the resolution of real conflicts.