Índices de monitoramento e detecção de mudanças climáticas na região Sudeste do Brasil.

Abstract

This master thesis aimed to estimate and analyze indexes extreme daily rainfall and air temperature maximum and minimum trend and check the relative humidity to southeastern Brazil. Therefore we calculated the indices of climate extremes defined by a working group called ETCCDMII the World Meteorological Organization. We used daily data of precipitation, air temperature and maximum and minimum relative humidity (observed the 18-UTC Coordinated Universal Time) from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) twenty one conventional stations located in the states of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The data showed reliable quality and cover the entire study area. In relation to indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures, in general, showed homogeneity in the spatial distribution of the trends positive / negative (increase / decrease). There was a rise in minimum and maximum temperatures in the region, the indexes that were pointed decreased number of cold days and nights. Moreover, the indices based on daily precipitation did not show homogeneous pattern of spatial distribution of trends. Only indexes PRCPTOT, R20mm, R99p and SDII showed a predominance of positive trends (increase), yet not statistically significant at most stations. In general, we observed a decrease of the relative humidity throughout the region. This is a strong warning sign, because the Q15 (P15) of the interior locations are close to the minimum values that are critical to human health is 30%.