SOUSA, N. M. N.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5346175679894114; SOUSA, Nadja Maria Nascimento.
Résumé:
Data of temperature, relative humidity of the air and precipitation during the
period of 1992 to 2000 in Campina Grande (07°13'S; 35°52'W; 508m) and Joao Pessoa
(07°07'S; 034°53'W; 05m) were used with the objective of identifying the influence of
these meteorological elements on the incidence of Dengue Fever, Meningitis and
Pneumonia in these places. Initially, coefficients of monthly incidence per 10,000
inhabitants for each disease were determined, which were related to the meteorological
elements: average air temperature (T), maximum temperature (Tx), minimum
temperature (Tn), relative air humidity (UR) and precipitation (?) of the studied period.
Precipitation, Dengue Fever, Meningitis and Pneumonia were used in monthly totals,
and the temperatures (minimum, average and maximum) and the relative air humidity
were used in monthly averages. Intra-annual climatic variations (monthly, and by
seasons of the year) were observed for all of the period studied Simple regression
analyses were used to verify the function of better adjustment, and then multiple linear
regressions with all the meteorological elements contained in the model, with the
objective of knowing the maximum in which these apply on each disease studied.
Finally, the "stepwise" multiple regression method was used to maintain only the
meteorological elements which contributed most to the incidence of the studied diseases
in the model. The adequacy of the coefficients of correlation was verified by the
hypothesis test, F, for the significance level of 5%. The results showed that there was
influence of the meteorological elements in the incidence of Meningitis and Pneumonia,
with R2 0,12 and 0,18 respectively, and of Dengue Fever, Meningitis and Pneumonia in
Joao Pessoa with R2 0,34, 0,25 and 0,23 in this same order. As to the meteorological
elements that may be considered predictions of the incidence of the studied diseases, it
was verified that for Meningitis and Pneumonia in Campina Grande it is minimum
temperature and Joao Pessoa average air temperature; for the incidence of the Dengue
Fever, it was maximum temperature and Precipitation in Joao Pessoa, while in Campina
Grande no element was considered statistically significant However, atmospheric
conditions in the locality of Campina Grande suggest a restriction on the action of the
mosquito, which transmits the Dengue Fever, especially when the minimum
temperature diminishes considerably, while in Joao Pessoa the atmospheric conditions
seem to favor a more rapid spreading of the mosquito and its obtaining the ability to
infect. It was noticed that the influence of monthly and seasonal air temperature was
more significant on the incidence of these diseases in both places. The meteorological
elements considered in this paper, in general contributed to the incidence of Dengue
Fever, Meningitis, and Pneumonia in Campina Grande and Joao Pessoa at about 12% to
34%, justifying that aside from meteorological conditions, there are others caused by
nutritional, social and the immunological defense conditions of the human organism.
