Influência do El Niño-oscilação sul na distribuição espacial e temporal da precipitação no Estado da Paraíba.

Abstract

The present study aims to regionalize the average decendial precipitation in the State of Paraíba. Identification of homogeneous subregions was performed by principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (AA) for mean decendial precipitation values ​​of two datasets: one considering climatological years and other years with strong El events. Southern Nino-Oscillation (ENSO) for the period 1930-1993. The application of PCA to decendial mean values ​​shows that the first two components explain 96% of the total variance of precipitation for the climatological series. The first major component, the most significant, is associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT), which acts most strongly in the western part of the state, while the second shows the performance of mesoscale systems in the eastern part of the state. On the other hand, for years with strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events the first three components explain 82% of the total variance of precipitation. The determination of homogeneous groups of precipitation was made using the method proposed by WARD in the different situations, that is, average decendial precipitation values ​​and for the most significant eigenvectors. The analysis results for climatological years delimit the State of Paraíba in six (06) homogeneous subregions while for years with strong ENSO events the results reveal the existence of five (05) homogeneous subregions.