Gestão de riscos a desastres Enos (El Niño oscilação sul) no semiárido paraibano: uma análise comparativa.

Abstract

The main objective of this work was to proceed a study of the socioeconomicenvironmental vulnerability of the rural population of the municipalities of Sousa, Sume and Picui, located in the semi-arid region of the State of Paraiba, and the study of the environmental degradation, taking in account the effects of ENSO events (south El Nino oscillation) as catalytic of the disaster - drought in these regions. Through test U (Assistat 6,2) was possible to certify that an effectively significant influence to the level of 5% of probability of the El Nino phenomenon on the rainfall of the studied areas, exists. In the temporal analysis of the Quick Look images, was possible to observe this effect on the environment and that the effect nor always happens in the same period where the installation of the event occurs. The visual analysis and digital image processing of the Landsat 5 and 7 satellite images permitted to evaluate the effects of EL Nifio events from 82/83 and 97/98. Also, based on the image analysis 8 degradation levels were defined. The results showed that all the 3 municipalities have a highest index of social, technological, economical and environmental vulnerability, increasing the risk to disaster. Also was observed that in all municipalities the environment is very serious degraded, but the municipality of Picui is in worse conditions, totally unproved of native reserves and with two nuclei of desertification in expansion corresponding to 5.12% of its territorial space.