RODRIGUES, M. F. G.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6235891408425870; RODRIGUES, Marcos Fernando Guedes.
Abstract:
Rainfall data of 84 locations of the Ceara State were used for determining the contribution
of the first and second periods to the accumulated rainny season rainfall for each State microregion.
The rainny season was established between January, 1 to June, 30, centered at March, 19. The use of
the cluster analysis technique allowed the identification of seven pluviometrically homogeneous
microregions in the Ceara State. The Beta probability model was used in the adjustment of the
microregions rainfall time series, with the degree of adjustment been verified through the
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) statistical test. The methodology proposed by SILVA (1988), based on
the quints technique, was used for forecasting the rainny season second half rainfall as a function of
the rainny season first half rainfall and also based on the statistics of the microregion rainfall time
series.
The beta probability distribution model showed to be statistically efficient for adjusting the
homogeneous microregions rainfall time series at a 0,20 significance level. The methodology proposed
by SILVA (1988) showed to be effective for estimating the maximum and minimum accumulated
rainfall of the rainny season second half for each climatically- homogeneous microregion of the Ceard
State, particularly for the minimum value, according to projections made for period from 1960 to
1969.