Estudo estatístico das chuvas de outono no Estado do Ceará.

Abstract

Rainfall data of 84 locations of the Ceara State were used for determining the contribution of the first and second periods to the accumulated rainny season rainfall for each State microregion. The rainny season was established between January, 1 to June, 30, centered at March, 19. The use of the cluster analysis technique allowed the identification of seven pluviometrically homogeneous microregions in the Ceara State. The Beta probability model was used in the adjustment of the microregions rainfall time series, with the degree of adjustment been verified through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) statistical test. The methodology proposed by SILVA (1988), based on the quints technique, was used for forecasting the rainny season second half rainfall as a function of the rainny season first half rainfall and also based on the statistics of the microregion rainfall time series. The beta probability distribution model showed to be statistically efficient for adjusting the homogeneous microregions rainfall time series at a 0,20 significance level. The methodology proposed by SILVA (1988) showed to be effective for estimating the maximum and minimum accumulated rainfall of the rainny season second half for each climatically- homogeneous microregion of the Ceard State, particularly for the minimum value, according to projections made for period from 1960 to 1969.