Análise estatística das ondas de calor em Cuiabá - MT (1961-2024).

Abstract

According to the IPCC, extreme weather events, especially those related to high temperatures, have become increasingly frequent and intense. One of these events is heat waves (HCWs), phenomena that directly impact human health, ecosystems, and urban infrastructure. This study aims to identify and analyze heat waves that occurred in Cuiabá - MT between 1961 and 2024, focusing on their duration, intensity, and frequency. To this end, daily maximum and minimum temperature data from the INMET conventional weather station were used, applying the CTX90pct and CTN90pct indices, based on the 90th percentile. Statistical and computational analyses were performed using Python and Excel tools, in addition to applying the Mann-Kendall test and linear regression to verify trends. The results indicate a significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves from the 2010s onwards, also evidencing a trend of rising temperatures throughout the historical series. In short, this work shows that heat waves have intensified in recent years, highlighting the relevance and urgency of this issue.